Can Donald Trump Win the Midwest?

Due to high concentrations of Latinos in other swing states, a strong performance in manufacturing-heavy counties in the Midwest will be paramount to Trump's presidential aspirations. What kinds of populations will he find support with?


































After overwhelming victories in the primaries, Donald Trump is on course to become the Republican nominee for president. Trump's campaign, from an economic standpoint, is largely centered around anti-trade sentiment and he has frequently lamented US job loss to foreign countries. Given the high Latino population in several swing states (notably Florida, New Mexico and Nevada), picking up battleground states in the Midwest will be crucial for Trump to reach 270 electoral votes. Due to the prevalence of manufacturing in this region and the high frequency of discourse regarding jobs moving overseas or succumbing to automated machinery, gaining a better understanding of how Trump fares among these affected communities is important. What is most interesting is that as a whole, the number of manufacturing jobs is increasing. While traditional manufacturing jobs have always been associated with assembly-line jobs popularized by Ford in the early 20th century, the "new" kind of manufacturing job which is growing rapidly nowadays, requires a higher degree of technical skill in operating machinery and therefore, higher wages. The charts include Trump's performance in the county during the Republican primary season and the corresponding chart shows the change in number of manufacturing-related jobs and weekly wage in the region since the last election cycle began. How do communities who have seen a decrease in wages and jobs differ from those who have seen both improve? And can Trump count on either population's support come election season?